UK gMG prevalence spans a wide range depending on how broadly the population is defined, and reconciling that range, not picking one number, is the first step of a defensible funnel.
Two AXLRx research angles produce different UK gMG prevalence figures, and the difference is a scope difference, not a contradiction. The narrower estimate, 7,000-10,000 patients, comes from disease-landscape research anchored to the NHS neuromuscular network and the Myasthenia Gravis Association UK's registered membership, a base that captures patients in active specialist follow-up. The broader estimate, 12,000-15,000 patients, comes from launch-readiness population modelling and includes mild and well-controlled cases that are managed in primary or general neurology care and are not routinely captured in the specialist-network count. This model takes the broader 12,000-15,000 figure as total UK prevalence and treats the narrower estimate as the specialist-engaged subset within it.
Within that total, approximately 4,000 patients have moderate-to-severe disease and currently have no NICE-recommended novel agent, a segment confirmed independently across both research angles. A further 2,000-3,000 patients are specifically refractory to immunosuppressant therapy, the population launch-readiness modelling treats as the addressable pool for a new biologic. Roughly 30-40% of UK gMG patients, per Myasthenia Gravis Association UK survey data, report inadequate disease control on current standard therapy, a figure that applies most directly to the moderate-severe tier rather than the full 12,000-15,000 base.
UK gMG funnel - reconciling total prevalence to the refractory, novel-agent-eligible pool
| Funnel Stage | Population | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated total UK gMG prevalence (broad base) | 12,000-15,000 | AXLRx Launch Readiness research base |
| Specialist-network-confirmed subset (narrower base) | 7,000-10,000 | Myasthenia Gravis Association UK annual report 2023 |
| Moderate-to-severe disease | ~4,000 | Myasthenia Gravis Association UK / AXLRx Launch Readiness research base |
| Refractory to immunosuppressant therapy | 2,000-3,000 | AXLRx Launch Readiness research base |
Sources: Myasthenia Gravis Association UK annual report 2023; AXLRx Myasthenia Gravis UK Launch Readiness research base (MAGS UK survey methodology, NHSBT IVIg demand data 2023).
What this model answers
Every section answers a named commercial question your team is asking, scoped to your asset.
Delivers
- The scope difference between the specialist-network-confirmed base and the broader population estimate
- how each maps to a forecasting funnel
- why 12,000-15,000 is used as total prevalence here
Delivers
- Moderate-severe sizing (~4,000)
- refractory sizing (2,000-3,000)
- the 30-40% inadequate-control rate from Myasthenia Gravis Association UK survey data
Delivers
- 8-sheet structure (Strategic Context, Inputs, Model, Projections, Sensitivity, References, Market Context, QC)
- primary-source citation per conversion step across both research angles
Custom model delivered in 72 hours.
Commission This ModelWhat's inside
- Reconciling the 7,000-10,000 specialist-network estimate against the 12,000-15,000 population base
- Pressure-tested before the rest of the model is built out
- 12,000-15,000 estimated total UK prevalence
- The narrower 7,000-10,000 specialist-network subset
- The 30-centre NHS neuromuscular network
- Serological confirmation pathway
- ~4,000 patients with moderate-to-severe disease
- 30-40% reporting inadequate disease control (MGA UK survey)
- 2,000-3,000 refractory patients
- No NICE-recommended novel agent for any tier
- Which population-scope assumption moves the addressable pool most
- Scenario ranges across the two prevalence estimates
- Patient volume by horizon under conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios
- Revenue translation inputs
- The open questions your forecasting team must close before the model is finalised
- Structured for an internal forecast-review session
Included with every brief
How AXLRx builds this model
Prepared by MoatRx analysts.
Every AXLRx patient flow model is built on a five-layer funnel: population, disease burden (E1), diagnosis and specialist capture (E2), treatment and biomarker eligibility (E3), market access (E4), then Year 1-3-5 projections across three scenarios. Where two AXLRx research angles produce different population figures, this model states the scope difference explicitly rather than silently picking one number.
UK gMG sources: Myasthenia Gravis Association UK annual report and survey data, and the population and severity-segmentation research built for the AXLRx UK Launch Readiness assessment, which draws on NHSBT IVIg demand data and NHS neuromuscular network mapping.
- Total UK prevalence range (12,000-15,000) and the narrower specialist-network estimate (7,000-10,000) verified against the AXLRx Launch Readiness and Disease Landscape research bases respectively
- Moderate-to-severe population (~4,000) and 30-40% inadequate-control rate verified against Myasthenia Gravis Association UK survey data
- Refractory population (2,000-3,000) verified against the AXLRx Launch Readiness research base
Frequently asked questions
Commission this model
AXLRx delivers rare-disease patient flow models built for forecasting and launch teams sizing the UK gMG opportunity. Custom model in 72 hours.
Specify your indication, market, and cohort definition.
AXLRx analyst confirms funnel scope and comparator set before building.
Research-verified patient flow model in 72 hours with optional analyst readout.