An incidence-to-eligible funnel built as a live, re-runnable Excel model: 8 sheets, 119 formulas, zero hardcoded cells. Every conversion step sourced, every assumption editable.
Incidence-to-eligible NSCLC funnel by cohort with sourced conversion assumptions and a share waterfall.
100,000-200,000 US gMG patients narrow to a 4,000-6,000 on-FcRn-therapy pool, and 1,200-2,100 of them remain inadequately controlled despite treatment.
6,000-10,000 GCC gMG patients on the epidemiology estimate, of whom 200-300 are refractory and fewer than 50 are currently on biologic therapy.
Newborn screening has been universal since 1999, so the UK's 15,000-17,000 diagnosed sickle cell patients are counted with confidence. They narrow to a 4,000-6,000-patient conventional-therapy gap and a separate 200-300-per-year gene-therapy-eligible pool.
700-900 NHS-diagnosed Fabry patients split cleanly by therapy. Roughly 600 are on enzyme replacement and about 200, or 25%, on oral migalastat, with free NHS cascade testing adding 3-4 diagnosed relatives per index case.
8,000-10,000 US SMA patients split roughly 60/27/13/under 5 percent across Types 1-4. The 500-700-patient Zolgensma cohort is what this funnel validates against.
True UK ATTRwt-CM prevalence runs 20,000-40,000, and 15,000-36,000 of those patients remain undiagnosed. Only 3,000-4,000 are on NHS-commissioned tafamidis today, adding 1,500-2,000 a year.
An estimated 8,000-9,000 Americans live with hereditary angioedema. Just 35-40% receive any prophylaxis, leaving 2,500-4,000 patients who meet treatment criteria untreated, the funnel this model sizes precisely.
15,000-20,000 Americans carry a PNH clone, but only about 3,500 reach complement-inhibitor therapy. Up to 1,200 of them stay anaemic on it. This model sizes every gap in between.
600-800 estimated GCC Dravet patients, fewer than 200 SCN1A-confirmed. A 200-400 near-term addressable cohort sits within that confirmed subset.
Epidemiology projects 1,200-1,500 GCC HAE patients; the GCC allergy society's own case registry counts only 400-600. The gap is not a contradiction, it is the diagnostic-capacity constraint of just 6-10 specialist physicians across all six states.
~600-750 UK PNH patients are on active complement-inhibitor therapy against a reconciled total prevalence near 1,500. The other 750-900 are monitored-only or undiagnosed, and this model sizes the gap.
France's PMSI hospital database counts 897 PNH patients over five years; Orphanet's older estimate puts national prevalence at 850-1,000. Only 270 of them, per the manufacturer's own estimate, are eligible for a second-line oral agent.
350-450 UK Pompe disease patients, of whom roughly 200 form the registry-confirmed cohort. One in four long-term ERT patients is not holding stable, the segment this model is built to size.
400-600 GCC Pompe disease patients, of whom 200-300 are on enzyme replacement therapy. Just 40-60, patients with FVC decline despite alglucosidase already on home ventilation, are the segment this model is built to size.
The broader estimate puts 12,000-15,000 UK patients with generalised myasthenia gravis. About 4,000 have moderate-severe disease and 2,000-3,000 are refractory, with no NICE-recommended novel agent for any of them.
5,000-10,000 diagnosed US classic Fabry patients face a 35-50% amenable-mutation gate to oral therapy. The treated population is still 60-65% on enzyme replacement. This funnel starts at diagnosis because no defensible undiagnosed estimate exists yet.
6,000-8,000 US Dravet patients, roughly three-quarters SCN1A-confirmed. 35-40% are still inadequately controlled on cannabidiol plus fenfluramine, the population any new agent must actually reach.
GCC male Fabry prevalence runs 1:20,000-30,000, elevated by founder mutations. Only 200-300 patients are diagnosed against a true burden estimated 3-5 times higher, and female diagnosis lags at under half the male rate.
2,000-2,500 UK Dravet patients, of whom 400-500 are SCN1A-confirmed in genetic registries. 600-900 remain inadequately controlled on cannabidiol plus fenfluramine.
A ~1,000-patient confirmed UK SMA cohort by type reconciles against a 1,800-2,000-patient total prevalence estimate. A 50-60/yr Zolgensma cohort is the on-therapy validation anchor.
GCC SMA incidence runs 1:6,000-8,000 births, with newborn-screening coverage from 90% down to under 50%. An 800-1,200-patient legacy Type 2/3 pool and a 60-80/yr Zolgensma cohort anchor the on-therapy view.
Two GCC ATTR-CM burden estimates both convert to fewer than 1,000 confirmed diagnoses. One puts the range at 15,000-25,000, the other at a narrower 2,000-5,000 ATTRwt-CM cohort. This model reconciles the gap and traces it to scintigraphy access.
An estimated 8,000-12,000 GCC IgAN patients narrow to fewer than 30% ever biopsied, then to zero on novel therapy. No agent is SFDA-registered as of 2024. The funnel gap, not the prevalence estimate, is what a GCC patient flow model has to size.
An estimated 2,000-3,000 Gulf patients carry a clinically significant PNH clone. Only about 400 are confirmed in national registries, and just 150-250 reach complement-inhibitor therapy. Diagnostic capacity, not drug access, is the constraint this model sizes.
150,000 US IgA nephropathy patients, of whom 70,000-90,000 are biopsy-confirmed. Only 5,000-8,000 are on novel therapy today, while 15,000-25,000 patients with UPCR above 1g/g remain the addressable high-risk cohort this model sizes precisely.
10,000-15,000 UK IgA nephropathy patients, of whom approximately 8,000 are tracked in the UK Renal Registry. Only 3,000-5,000 clear the mandatory ACEi/ARB and SGLT2i optimisation gate to become eligible for a novel agent, and fewer than 500 currently access one pre-NICE.
200,000-250,000 GCC sickle cell patients, with 140,000-200,000 in Saudi Arabia alone. NPHC's actively-managed registry reaches only 8,000-10,000 — the addressable near-term funnel stage within a much larger under-managed population, not a contradiction.
500,000+ US patients aged 70+ with HFpEF carry undiagnosed ATTRwt-CM, against only 70,000-100,000 diagnosed and treated. Two further sub-populations, Val122Ile carriers and ATTR-PN, remain even less visible.
An estimated 100,000 US sickle cell patients narrow to a 55,000-65,000-patient pool with no adequate novel therapy. Only 50-100 of the gene-therapy-eligible minority were actually treated in year one.
The UK HAE Alliance counts 5,000-6,000 total patients, of whom 1,500-2,000 are on NICE-commissioned prophylaxis. A further 1,500-2,500 are attack-active but never treated, and Longhurst et al.'s 37-centre registry confirms 1,152 patients from the bottom up.
5,000-10,000 Americans live with Pompe disease. Roughly 2,000 late-onset patients are on enzyme replacement therapy, and 375-600 of them, one in four, are inadequate responders, the subtype this model is built to size.
Germany has no domestic PNH prevalence count of its own. DGHO's Onkopedia guideline borrows a 16-per-million estimate from British and French registries, and only two national centres, Ulm and Essen, anchor referral.
316,950 new US invasive breast cancer diagnoses in 2025. Only 6.0% present as metastatic at diagnosis, but 73.9% of the metastatic population is HR+/HER2-, the subtype this model is actually built to size.
An editable Excel funnel model, a PDF write-up of the assumptions and result, and a PowerPoint readout, with a 45-minute analyst call included.
Every conversion is cited to a primary source and re-runnable; the model shows its working rather than a black-box number.
Yes. You set the market, cohort definition and comparators; the model is built to your scope and delivered editable.