10,000-15,000 UK patients carry an IgA nephropathy diagnosis, but the ACEi/ARB and SGLT2i optimisation gate standing between diagnosis and novel-agent eligibility is what this model has to size precisely.
The UK Renal Registry identifies IgA nephropathy as the country's second most common primary glomerulonephritis, with an estimated 10,000-15,000 patients nationally and around 500 new diagnoses a year confirmed via kidney biopsy across a network of roughly 80 NHS specialist nephrology centres. Approximately 8,000 of those patients are actively tracked in the Registry. IgA nephropathy accounts for 10-12% of incident UK end-stage renal disease, some 1,000-1,200 cases a year, the clinical urgency that underwrites the case for early, accurate intervention.
Diagnosis alone does not confer novel-agent eligibility. NICE's guidance requires ACEi/ARB optimisation for at least three months, with SGLT2i background therapy now mandated under the 2023 CKD guideline (NG203) for patients above roughly 0.5g/g UPCR, before a novel agent is even considered. Of the diagnosed pool, 3,000-5,000 patients clear that standard-of-care gate with persistent proteinuria and are the addressable near-term population. Fewer than 500 currently access a novel therapy pre-NICE, reflecting how recently both budesonide and sparsentan cleared technology appraisal. Every conversion step in this funnel carries its source, live in the model.
UK IgA nephropathy funnel — from national prevalence to the treatment-eligible cohort
| Funnel Stage | Population | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated UK IgAN patient pool | 10,000–15,000 | UK Renal Registry Annual Report 2023 |
| New biopsy-confirmed diagnoses per year | ~500 | UK Renal Registry Annual Report 2023 |
| Patients tracked in UK Renal Registry | ~8,000 | UK Renal Registry Annual Report 2023 |
| Conversion to end-stage renal disease | 10–12% (~1,000–1,200/yr) | UK Renal Registry Annual Report 2023 |
| Eligible for novel agent post-SoC gate | 3,000–5,000 | AXLRx IgA Nephropathy Payer & HTA Brief (UK); NICE guideline NG203 |
| Currently on any novel therapy pre-NICE | <500 | AXLRx IgA Nephropathy Launch Readiness Brief (UK) |
Sources: UK Renal Registry Annual Report 2023; Renal Association IgA Nephropathy Guideline (2023, aligned with KDIGO 2021); NICE CKD guideline NG203 (2023); AXLRx IgA Nephropathy Payer & HTA and Launch Readiness Briefs (UK).
What this model answers
Every section answers a named commercial question your team is asking, scoped to your asset.
Delivers
- The ~8,000 patients tracked in the UK Renal Registry
- the 3,000-5,000 patients who clear the ACEi/ARB and SGLT2i optimisation gate
- why the pre-NICE access pool remains under 500
Delivers
- The three-month ACEi/ARB optimisation requirement
- NG203's mandatory SGLT2i background therapy
- how these gates narrow 10,000-15,000 diagnosed patients to a 3,000-5,000 addressable cohort
Delivers
- 8-sheet structure (Strategic Context, Inputs, Model, Projections, Sensitivity, References, Market Context, QC)
- source citation per conversion step from UK Renal Registry and NICE technology appraisal documentation
Custom model delivered in 72 hours.
Commission This ModelWhat's inside
- Why the ACEi/ARB and SGLT2i optimisation gate, not diagnosis alone, sets the addressable pool
- Pressure-tested against NICE's NG203 mandatory background-therapy requirement before the rest of the model is built out
- 10,000-15,000 estimated UK patient pool per UK Renal Registry
- ~500 new biopsy-confirmed diagnoses per year
- ~8,000 patients actively tracked in the UK Renal Registry
- 10-12% conversion to end-stage renal disease, ~1,000-1,200 cases per year
- 3,000-5,000 patients eligible after ACEi/ARB and SGLT2i optimisation
- NG203's mandatory background-therapy requirement
- Fewer than 500 patients currently on a novel therapy pre-NICE
- Named Patient Programme access ahead of full NHS commissioning
- Which assumptions move the eligible pool most
- Scenario ranges across registry tracking rate and SoC-gate clearance
- Patient volume by horizon under conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios
- Revenue translation inputs
- The open questions your forecasting team must close before the model is finalised
- Structured for an internal forecast-review session
Included with every brief
How AXLRx builds this model
Prepared by MoatRx analysts.
Every AXLRx patient flow model is built on a five-layer funnel, Population, disease burden (E1), diagnosis and specialist capture (E2), treatment and biomarker eligibility (E3), market access (E4), then Year 1-3-5 projections across three scenarios. Delivered as a live Excel workbook, not a static table: 114 formulas across 8 sheets, zero hardcoded cells.
UK IgA nephropathy sources: UK Renal Registry Annual Report data, the Renal Association IgAN guideline, NICE's CKD guideline NG203, and AXLRx's own payer and launch-readiness research on NICE technology appraisal status and pre-commissioning access.
- UK patient prevalence and annual new-diagnosis rate verified against UK Renal Registry Annual Report 2023
- ESRD conversion share and registry-tracking figures verified against UK Renal Registry Annual Report 2023
- Standard-of-care optimisation gate and eligible-cohort size verified against NICE CKD guideline NG203 and AXLRx IgA Nephropathy Payer & HTA Brief (UK)
- Pre-NICE novel-therapy access figure verified against AXLRx IgA Nephropathy Launch Readiness Brief (UK)
Frequently asked questions
Commission this model
AXLRx delivers nephrology patient flow models built for forecasting and launch teams sizing the UK IgA nephropathy opportunity. Custom model in 72 hours.
Specify your indication, market, and cohort definition.
AXLRx analyst confirms funnel scope and comparator set before building.
Research-verified patient flow model in 72 hours with optional analyst readout.