AXLRx · Patient Flow Model

From incidence to addressable — the NSCLC funnel.

A bottom-up funnel from diagnosed NSCLC to your eligible cohort, with every conversion step sourced and every assumption labelled, so your team can defend the number.

NSCLC · US MarketPatient Flow Model72-Hour DeliveryEditable Excel Model100% Live-Sourced

Commission This Brief View the funnel ↓

Why The Funnel Decides The Number

Your addressable market is a chain of conversion assumptions. If one step is wrong, the launch forecast is wrong — and it is usually the testing step.

Every NSCLC opportunity estimate is a funnel: incidence → advanced/metastatic → biomarker-tested → eligible → treated in your line. Each step is an assumption that has to be sourced, not guessed.

The biggest single driver of variance is biomarker testing penetration — the gap between patients who are eligible and those who are identified as eligible. A forecast that assumes full testing overstates the near-term addressable pool every time.

Below, we build the funnel the way your commercial analyst will have to defend it in the first forecast review.

conversion steps from incidence to your eligible cohort

~57%

of NSCLC presents at advanced/metastatic stage

assumptions that drive the majority of estimate variance

Y1·Y3·Y5

horizons modelled with testing-rate sensitivity

What Your Team Needs Answered

Five questions. Each section is built to answer one of them.

Structured by decision, not by topic — every section feeds a specific commercial call.

How many patients enter the funnel, and at what stage?

DeliversIncidence base · stage distribution · advanced/metastatic entry pool

How many are biomarker-tested and identified as eligible?

DeliversTesting penetration by biomarker · identification gap · trajectory

How many reach your line of therapy?

DeliversLine-of-therapy attrition · treated-share assumptions · sourcing

Which assumptions drive the variance?

DeliversRanked driver list · sensitivity table · break-points

What does the funnel look like at Y1, Y3, Y5?

DeliversThree-horizon projection · testing-rate scenarios · cohort splits

Scoped to your cohort and line of therapy — not the market in aggregate.

Scope Your Work

Inside the Brief

Eight sections. Every section structured around a named commercial question.

What your team receives. Section scope is built around your asset and proposed label — not pulled from a generic template.

AXLRx™ · Intelligence Brief · Patient Flow Model

Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer — Patient Flow Model, US

Prepared for [Client] · Q2 2026 · 30 pages · Confidential

Contents

01The Funnel Framepp. 1–3
- The five conversion steps and why each is an assumption
- Where your cohort enters the funnel
- What is sourced vs. modelled
02Incidence Basepp. 4–6
- Incidence and stage distribution
- Advanced/metastatic entry pool
- Demographic skew that moves the base
03The Testing Steppp. 7–11
- Biomarker testing penetration — the variance driver
- Diagnosed vs. identified gap
- Testing-rate trajectory and its forecast impact
04Eligibility & Linepp. 12–16
- Eligibility funnel by cohort
- Line-of-therapy attrition
- Treated-share assumptions and their sources
05Scenario Buildpp. 17–21
- Conservative, base, aggressive funnels
- Testing-rate and staging-mix sensitivity
- Where the model breaks
06Driver Rankingpp. 22–25
- The assumptions that drive 80% of variance
- Sensitivity table by driver
- Decision levers your team controls
07Y1·Y3·Y5 Outputpp. 26–28
- Patient volume by horizon and cohort
- Revenue translation inputs
- Confidence bands
08Client Alignment Questionspp. 29–30
- Which conversion steps need primary validation
- Assumptions that will be challenged in forecast review
- Decisions contingent on testing-rate evolution
— Source Annex — all PMIDs, ClinicalTrials.gov IDs, and live URLs pp. A1–A6

At a glance

30pages across 8 structured sections

5commercial questions answered

72hfrom scope confirmation to delivery

100%of figures cited to live source

Readout call included

All deliveries include a 30-minute call with your analyst — to walk through findings and identify what your team needs to resolve next.

What You Receive

Three outputs delivered within 72 hours. Each built for a different role in your commercial team.

The intelligence analysis, the working model, and the board summary — delivered together.

Core Deliverable

PDF

PDF · ~30 pages

Intelligence Brief

Structured for sequential reading by your launch lead, medical affairs director, and market access team. Every exhibit sourced.

Executive summary — 3 pages, decision-level
Full analysis by section
Every exhibit cited to a live source
Source annex — all PMIDs and live URLs

XLS

Excel Workbook

Patient Flow Model (Excel)

The core deliverable — a live, editable funnel your commercial analyst can run sensitivities on without rebuilding. Every conversion step is labelled and sourced.

Bottom-up funnel — incidence to eligible
Testing-penetration assumption layer
Cohort splits by line and biomarker
Three scenarios with editable inputs
Sensitivity table — top assumption levers

PPT

PowerPoint · Optional Add-on

Executive Deck

Five slides your leadership team can act on — structured around decisions, not descriptions.

Market opportunity — cohort-level
Competitive position and key threats
Payer readiness gap
Patient capture scenarios
Priority decisions and open questions

Sample Output

Exhibit 4 — NSCLC patient funnel, US (illustrative).

Illustrative funnel. Conversion percentages are typical-range and shown to demonstrate structure and sourcing depth — on a commissioned model every step is cited and editable.

Patient Funnel — Incidence to Eligible · NSCLC · US · 2026 Sample · Illustrative

Diagnosed NSCLC (US/yr)

Illustrative base

~200,000

100%

Advanced / metastatic

Stage III–IV at dx

~114,000

57%

Biomarker-tested

Testing penetration — variance driver

~80,000

40%

Your-cohort eligible

By proposed biomarker/label

~24,000

12%

[YOUR ASSET] 1L-treated

[Client] · confirmed at intake

Scope-set

Sources: Funnel percentages are typical-range and illustrative for this sample page. On a commissioned model, each conversion step is cited to a live SEER, NCCN, FDA, or peer-reviewed source and verified at point of writing; testing-penetration inputs are sourced and editable.

Source Standard

Every figure is live-sourced before delivery. If a number cannot be verified, it does not appear.

This is a field where AI confidently reproduces outdated epidemiology, superseded payer policy, and retracted analyses. AXLRx uses none of its own memory as a source. Every figure your team receives is verified against a live document at the time of writing.

A wrong number in front of your payer or your leadership team is not recoverable in the same meeting.

Every claim cited to a live PMID, ClinicalTrials.gov ID, or URL at point of writing — uncited claims are dropped, not estimated
PubMed metadata fetched live during authoring — model memory produces incorrect author and journal data even on correct PMIDs
Numeric cross-check: the specific figure must appear in the cited source, not merely be consistent with its topic
Independent audit pass after generation — broken links, unsourced claims, and numeric inconsistencies flagged before delivery
Drop gate: any figure that cannot clear the above is removed. No confidence tiers. No exceptions.

Questions

What commercial teams ask before commissioning.

Scope

Is the model editable?

Yes — the Excel funnel is fully editable with labelled, sourced assumptions, so your analyst can run sensitivities and re-scope without rebuilding it.

Sourcing

Are the conversion rates sourced?

Every conversion step cites a live source at the point of writing and is cross-checked against it. The testing-penetration step — the biggest variance driver — is sourced and shown as a sensitivity, not a point estimate.

Delivery

How fast?

72 hours from scope confirmation, with a 30-minute readout call. A 48-hour track is available.

Format

What do we receive?

The editable Excel model is the core deliverable, plus a PDF brief walking through the funnel logic and an optional executive deck.

Process

Can you model a specific cohort only?

Yes. Tell us the biomarker, line, and geography at intake and we scope the funnel to exactly that cohort.

Commission Your Analysis

Tell us your asset. Your team has the intelligence in 72 hours.

We build from your asset's clinical profile — mechanism, biomarker strategy, proposed label, and target cohort. Scope confirmation takes one call.

Start Your Request

Or see a sample output to review the depth before committing.

Submit your asset profile

Drug, mechanism, proposed indication, target cohort, geography. Five minutes via the intake form.

Scope confirmed in 24 hours

We confirm scope with your team, clarify ambiguities, and lock delivery timing.

Your patient flow model, delivered in 72 hours

PDF intelligence document, Excel model, and optional executive deck — with a 30-minute readout call included.